Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS63 KICT 250553
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances remain for tonight into Fri morning as cold front
moves through the area.

- Less confidence in storm chances this weekend given front will be
south of the area.

- Severe storms still look possible for Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

We have had a few MCVs track across the Plains today and were
generated from overnight convection over the High Plains. One is
tracking across eastern OK with another over northeast KS. Storms
developed late this morning just east of the KS MCV along and east
of I-135 with this activity continuing into the Flint Hills at this
time. Subsidence behind it has allow for mostly dry conditions
west of I-135 so far this afternoon. Synoptic cold front
currently stretches from north of Garden City to near Great Bend
and is continuing to slowly track south.

Current thinking is that there should be a couple areas of
convection late this afternoon/early evening. One along the synoptic
front over western/central KS and another over the OK/TX
Panhandle due to upslope and strong low level moisture
convergence. Once this activity develops it is expected to
track east and slightly northeast this evening with some
additional development possible as the front sags south. Shear
will not be that great but will be plenty of instability for at
least a marginally severe storm tonight into Fri morning.

By 12z Fri, cold front is expected to stretch across southern
portions of the forecast area and will be south of the forecast area
by 17z. Some sct showers and storms are forecast to be tied to the
front, and should be south of the area by the early afternoon hours
leaving most areas dry on Fri. Weak upper ridging is still set to
move over the central/southern Plains by Fri afternoon and remain
through most of Sat. Also feel that there could be an MCS or
remnant MCV tracking across OK Sat morning which could bring
some small storm chances to far southern KS. Surface high will
be centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley Sat morning and
will slide east throughout the day. This will setup some good
moisture transport across the High Plains with the highest
precip chances on Sat expected to be over western KS. Confidence
for storms drops off for Sat night into Sun. Low level jet will
develop Sat night and will increase mid level theta-e
advection, especially across western and northern portions of
our forecast area. Just not very confident on the how much
storm coverage we will se Sat night into Sun morning.

Shortwave trough will be on the move Sun night and by Mon afternoon
will stretch from western Nebraska into CO and will continue
tracking east Mon evening. Both ECMWF and GFS have a dryline
generally northwest of the KS Turnpike by 18z Mon with a cold front
from eastern Nebraska into northwest KS. Better upper forcing will
be northeast of the forecast area, so the main question will be if
we can get storms on the dryline this far south. Instability
definitely won`t be an issue, and shear will not be either.
Feel that if storms are not able to develop on the dryline, they
will when the dryline and cold front merge over
central/northeast KS Mon evening. Southeast KS should maintain
some storms Tue as the cold front takes its time pushing south.
There is then some decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS
in a southern stream impulse lifting out of the Desert Southwest
and across OK Wed into Wed night, that may keep some precip
around southern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Expecting hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm chances to persist
overnight across central and eastern Kansas, as an upper trough
traverses the Central Plains amidst a moist/unstable airmass.
There are three locations we`re currently watching for storms:
a large cluster of storms generally along/north of I-70, a
cluster approaching from western/northwest Kansas, and a cluster
over far southern Kansas extending south into Oklahoma. Thinking
RSL has the greatest potential for showers/storms, so included a
TEMPO group at RSL. SLN and GBD have somewhat lower chances, so
included PROB30 groups for those sites. Left shower/storm
mention out of ICT-HUT-CNU TAFs for now, as chances are lower
for those sites.

Additionally, thinking winds will gradually turn north-
northeasterly from north to south later tonight into Friday, as
a cold front oozes slowly south. Furthermore, thinking there are
decent chances for IFR or lower ceilings in wake of this front,
especially across central Kansas, as cold advection commences in
wake of the front.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK