Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS63 KICT 180525
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arriving this afternoon and evening. Much colder
weather beginning on Saturday.

- Chance for light snow/flurries west of I-135 Monday
  morning/early afternoon.

- Very cold air remains persistent through Tuesday. Coldest
temperatures and wind chills expected Tuesday morning.

- Warm up to near average temperatures by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: A weak shortwave trough was traversing
across the southern/central plains this afternoon and evening
bringing widespread cloud cover across much of the forecast
area. There may be just enough moisture and lift this evening
and tonight from this system for a couple of showers across the
far southeast corner of Kansas, but much of the region can
expect to remain dry tonight. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold
front was quickly progressing southeastward across the central
plains, and colder temperatures and gusty northerly winds are
following in its wake. Another reinforcing shot of very cold air
will arrive by early Saturday morning, and this will begin the
stint of persistent cold weather through at least the middle of
next week.

TEMPERATURES: Long wave deep-layer troughing will sink into the
central plains this weekend, and the polar jet will dip over the
southern plains as a result. This will promote modified arctic air
to sink in and sit across the central plains this weekend and
into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will generally run
10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year, and many
locations, especially in snow covered areas, could see over 100
hours of below freezing temperatures. The coldest temperatures
are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning as the surface
ridge finally slides into the area. With temperatures expected
to range between 5 below zero to 5 above zero, even light winds
will promote wind chills around 10 to 20 degrees below zero.
It`s likely cold weather headlines will be needed for overnight
Monday/Tuesday morning. After the middle of next week, a quick
warming trend will commence, and near average temperatures will
return by the end of next week and into next weekend!

PRECIPITATION: Meanwhile, with the cold air in place, and a weak
system brushing past the forecast area early on Monday, a few flakes
may fly around for areas along and west of the I-135 corridor Monday
morning/early afternoon. Accumulations are expected to be minimal
with better chances at anything accumulating likely staying confined
to west-central and southwest Kansas Monday morning. Still though, a
half- inch of new snow accumulations cannot be ruled out across
portions of central and south-central Kansas on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

MVFR cigs look to spread southward into central Kansas
overnight and could linger in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile
north winds will remain gusty through the overnight and Saturday
afternoon hours. Low level clouds around MVFR cigs could
persist across central and south central Kansas on Saturday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ